Uncertainty
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Uncertainty | |
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| Type | Epistemic and probabilistic concept |
| Field | Epistemology; Probability theory; Philosophy of science |
| Core idea | Lack of full determination regarding truth, outcome, or state of affairs |
| Assumptions | Information is limited or imperfect; confidence can vary by degree |
| Status | Foundational concept |
| Related | Doubt; Probability; Inference; Risk |
Uncertainty is a condition in which the truth of a claim, the outcome of an event, or the state of a system is not fully determined or known. Uncertainty arises from limited information, imperfect evidence, variability, or structural indeterminacy.
Uncertainty plays a central role in epistemology, probability theory, and scientific reasoning, shaping how beliefs are formed, evaluated, and revised.
Core idea
At its core, uncertainty reflects incomplete determination. When an agent is uncertain, multiple possibilities remain open given available information.
Uncertainty does not imply ignorance of all relevant facts; it indicates that available information does not uniquely fix a conclusion.
Sources of uncertainty
Uncertainty can arise from several sources, including:
- incomplete or missing information;
- measurement error or noise;
- variability in systems or processes;
- limitations of models or theories.
Different sources of uncertainty may require different methods of analysis.
Uncertainty and belief
Uncertainty affects how strongly an agent holds a belief. Beliefs under uncertainty are often tentative and subject to revision as new information becomes available.
This tentativeness distinguishes uncertainty from outright disbelief or error.
Uncertainty and doubt
Uncertainty is closely related to doubt. Doubt reflects an agent’s response to uncertainty, often involving suspension or weakening of belief.
However, uncertainty can exist without conscious doubt, particularly in formal or statistical contexts.
Uncertainty and probability
In many frameworks, uncertainty is represented using probability. Probabilistic models assign degrees of confidence or likelihood to possible outcomes or propositions.
Probability provides a formal tool for reasoning under uncertainty, but it does not eliminate uncertainty itself.
Uncertainty and inference
Uncertainty is a central condition for inference. Inference draws conclusions that go beyond what is directly observed, often under conditions where evidence is incomplete or ambiguous.
Different inferential methods manage uncertainty in different ways.
Uncertainty in science
Scientific inquiry operates under pervasive uncertainty. Data are limited, models are idealized, and conclusions are provisional.
Scientific methods aim to manage uncertainty through replication, error estimation, and critical scrutiny rather than eliminate it entirely.
Epistemic and practical uncertainty
A common distinction separates epistemic uncertainty, which concerns lack of knowledge, from practical uncertainty, which concerns unpredictability in outcomes relevant to action.
This distinction is important in decision-making and risk assessment.
Uncertainty and action
Agents frequently act under uncertainty. Decisions must often be made without complete information, requiring judgment about acceptable risk and confidence.
This connection links uncertainty to decision theory and practical reasoning.
Reduction and persistence
Some uncertainty can be reduced through inquiry, evidence gathering, or improved models. Other forms of uncertainty may persist due to structural limits, complexity, or indeterminacy.
Recognizing hooking forms of irreducible uncertainty is important for responsible reasoning.
Limits and disagreement
There is no single account of uncertainty applicable to all domains. Disagreement persists over how uncertainty should be represented, measured, and interpreted.
These disagreements reflect differences between epistemic, probabilistic, and practical perspectives.
Status
Uncertainty is a foundational concept across philosophy and science. Its analysis clarifies the limits of knowledge, the role of probability, and the conditions under which belief and action are justified.